Begin Planning For the 2011 Hurricane Season, and for the 2012 Through 2014 Seasons.

Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) provides accurate predictions of landfall risks for hurricanes, major hurricanes and tropical storms up to 4 years in advance. Forecasts are prepared In September and December prior to the beginning of the next hurricane season, with forecasts extending 4 years out in time.

During the past 5 years, GWO has a near 90% accuracy predicting what areas of the U.S. coastline will have active tropical cyclones, or what GWO calls "hot spots" for activity. GWO has 11 specified forecast zones along the east and Gulf coasts of the U.S. from Florida north to New England and west to Texas and northern Mexico. Interested parties may purchase as many zone forecasts as they desire (1 to 11), and as many years you desire (1 to 4). You can receive risk probability predictions for all forecast zones, or just one or more specific zones (see details of our product below).

We invite you and your strategic planning staff to review our reliable hurricane risk probability forecast service. Your company would benefit greatly by cutting costs and/or increasing profits through enhancing your strategic planning and/or inventory management functions.

GWO has 20 years of long range climate cycle experience and research. The verification for GWO forecasts and past hurricane tracks for the past 5 years (2006-2010) have confirmed the capability of our unique methodology. The Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM), discovered by GWO founder David Dilley, has accurately forecast risk probabilities for hurricane landfalls in the coastal areas from New England to Texas.

While other organizations only make seasonal forecasts of the number of tropical cyclones and number of major hurricanes, GWO’s technique gives accurate predictions of landfall risks up to 4 years in advance within 11 specified forecast zones along the east and Gulf coasts of the U.S. from Florida north to New England and west to the Texas-Mexico border. Of special note is the relationship that GWO discovered between the PFM and the average location of the semi-permanent High Pressure system in the Western Atlantic, known as the 'Bermuda High'. The circulation around the location of the Bermuda High when tropical cyclones are in progress influences the paths they will traverse and where their potential landfalls may be expected. PFM data and climatology differ for each of the 11 coastal zones.

If interested in our service, please contact us. We will prepare a proposal specifically for your company with options to receive risk probability predictions for all forecast zones, or for a subset of one or more specific zones. You will also have the option to select a 3-year contract with annual updates or a one-year contract. If there are other options you would like to see, please contact us and we will be pleased to provide them.
Example of a 4-Year Zone Forecast Prepared by Global Weather Oscillations Inc.

GWO prepares tropical storm and hurricane risk forecasts for 11 United States zones stretching from New England to northern Mexico. The predictions for all zones are for the current year with accurate outlooks extending out an additional 4- years. The graphic below illustrates these 11 zones, and an example of text version forecast can be seen below the zone graphic.

The zone forecasts are issued to our current clients in September and December preceding the next hurricane season. If your planning schedule for the 2011 season allows, you can request a proposal/contract form from GWO through the "Contact us" section or via telephone.

Example of a 4-Year Zone Forecast Prepared by Global Weather Oscillations Inc.

GWO prepares tropical storm and hurricane risk forecasts for 11 United States zones stretching from New England to northern Mexico. The predictions for all zones are for the current year with accurate outlooks extending out an additional 4- years. The graphic below illustrates these 11 zones, and an example of text version forecast can be seen below the zone graphic.

The zone forecasts are issued to our current clients in September and December preceding the next hurricane season. If your planning schedule for the 2011 season allows, you can request a proposal/contract form from GWO through the "Contact us" section or via telephone.

Example Zone Forecast (please note this is an example only)

Example:

Zone 15 - Shell Inlet to Big River Inlet

Forecast 2015 and Outlook for 2016 through 2018

Climatology

Based on 100 years of record (1909-2008) for either hurricane conditions occurring somewhere within the zone during a year, or if no hurricane, a year with tropical storm conditions occurring somewhere within the zone.

A total of 57 years had a tropical cyclone (hurricane or tropical storm) occur in this forecast zone. Climatologically, the average is for close to 3 hurricanes and 3 tropical storms during a 10 year period. But the averages can be misleading in that the PFM cycles define some 10 year periods as being quite active, and other 4 to 8 year periods as being very inactive. GWO's PFM model identifies these cycles and incorporates the data into preparation of the risk probability forecasts.

A total of 57 tropical cyclones occurred during the 100 year period.

Average seasonal risk for Tropical Cyclone conditions (hurricane or tropical storm) = 57%

Average seasonal risk of Tropical Storm "only" conditions = 30%

Average seasonal risk of Hurricane conditions = 27%

Hurricane Forecast Zone Issued by: Global Weather Oscillations Inc.

GWO model predictions - 2015

Hurricane conditions = 65% risk

*Major hurricane Cat 3-5 = 60% risk

Tropical Storm conditions= 75% risk

GWO PFM Model Predicted Risk Outlooks - 2016 through 2018 2016 Hurricane conditions= 45% risk

*Major hurricane Cat 3-5 = 20% risk

Tropical Storm conditions= 60% risk

2017 Hurricane conditions = 35% risk GWO El Niño prediction

*Major Hurricane =<10% risk

Tropical Storm conditions= 50% risk


2018 Hurricane conditions = 70% risk

*Major hurricane Cat 3-5 = 50% risk

Tropical Storm conditions= 60% risk


Analysis and Summary

GWO PFM cycles research indicates this zone is entering a very active 4-year PFM tropical cyclone cycle with 2 strong PFM cycles merging during the upcoming 4 year period.

The first year of the strong PFM point is 2015 and the second cycle occurs in the 2018 time frame. In tracking 8 similar historical strong PFM cycles and the occurrence of hurricanes during those cycles, major (CAT 3-5) hurricanes occurred about 50 percent of the time during these cycles. The major hurricanes occurred in 1906, 1933, 1964, 2004 and 2005. Thus GWO model expectations are for a high risk for two hurricanes – one of them likely to be a major hurricane, but a very high risk for at least one hurricane during the 4 year period.

The year 2015 is predicted to be at high risk for hurricane and tropical storm conditions due, in part, to surrounding zones also being at high risk. Because the predicted risk probability is 60% for a hurricane and 60% for a major hurricane in 2018, it is likely that a hurricane that hits this zone would be a major hurricane.

An El Niño is predicted by GWO to occur in 2017, thus reducing the high risk for hurricane conditions somewhat and resulting in a higher risk of hurricane conditions in 2018. Nevertheless it is important to remember that hurricane Andrew occurred during an El Niño year in 1992.

Bottom line for this zone – at least two hurricanes are likely during the next 4 years, with a high risk for one major hurricane.

It is the cycles of the "P F M" that controls the position of the Bermuda High Pressure Center, and the path of hurricanes (PFM and hurricane tracks). 2007 has favorable conditions for hurricanes to form and/or enter the Gulf of Mexico, then move east toward the Florida Gulf Coast, and northwest toward the upper Texas coast. Circulation around the Bermuda High Pressure Center will also favor movement of hurricanes toward the northeastern U.S. coast.

See this link (Bermuda High) for a more detailed description of the PFM and how it changes hurricane tracks from one season to the next.

Specialized Landfall Forecasts for 1 to 10 years in advance are available through Global Weather Oscillations, Inc.

Benefits of GWO Risk Probabilities for Hurricane

Allows for important business planning for your industry, which is strongly affected by tropical cyclone strikes.

Important information for enhancing your company’s strategy to expand or reduce coverage in new or existing coastal areas.

GWO’s Hurricane Landfall Risk Probability predictions give a detailed forecast for each of eleven zones for the probability of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms), and separate probability forecasts for hurricanes and tropical storms. An outlook for the following 3 years is also given with each one year forecast. The current year forecast and 3 year outlook can provide valuable information for strategic planning.

Recommended Actions You Can Take Now

If the information you’ve read in this GWO electronic bulletin is of interest to your company, GWO would be pleased to visit your corporate headquarters and do a presentation for you and your invited staff. The data you will view are unique and based on solid science. There is no other current long range cycle prediction technique that can produce the proven accurate results of the Primary Forcing Mechanism pioneered by David Dilley

May 28, 2011:

Use Our Unique, Proven, Long-range Risk Probability

Coastal Zone-Specific Predictions for Hurricanes and Tropical Storms ...

to Reduce your Risks and Enhance Your Bottom Line!

We have developed a UNIQUE hurricane risk probability prediction technique for eleven (11) specific coastal zones from Florida west to Texas and north to New England. While other organizations and forecasters make seasonal forecasts of the number of tropical cyclones and number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, they DO NOT normally include any information on the likelihood of a storm or hurricane striking a specific coastal zone. GWO, however, using proprietary technology DOES provide accurate predictions of hurricane risks up to 4 years in advance for each of the 11 coastal zones on the east coast and Gulf coast of the U.S.

Your company will enjoy a high benefit/cost ratio when you use our unique hurricane and tropical storm risk predictions. Millions of dollars can be saved/earned through reduced losses and/or increased profits by taking appropriate actions for your industry operations. Knowing the risk probabilities for hurricane and tropical storm force winds for specific zones on the U.S. east and Gulf coasts (far in advance of the hurricane season) can be of immense value to your company.

Industries that will benefit greatly include the INSURANCE and reinsurance industry as well as other WEATHER-sensitive industries such as Transportation, Agriculture, Construction, Outdoor Recreation, etc. Manufacturers and/or or Distributors of industrial or consumer products used to mitigate impacts of adverse weather conditions will also realize the high benefit cost ratio from our unique hurricane risk predictions.

If you are in the reinsurance or insurance industry, you can use the risk predictions for strategic planning. You can decide which zones you may want to write new property and loss policies (predicted low risk zones) and which zones you want to either not write new policies - or hold new policies to a minimum (predicted high risk zones). If you are in other weather-sensitive industries you can use the risk probabilities to take actions to maximize your product distribution and minimize your risk of potential damage, among other actions you would consider that would improve your bottom line.

You would use this information to reduce your risk - and to determine where to invest to manage distributions and inventory. Our risk predictions have proven to be accurate the last 3 hurricane seasons. Please click on the Verification section on the sidebar for details.

Explore and evaluate the information on our website. If you have interest in what we provide, please call us for a presentation to you and your staff or to discuss a customized proposal.

For further information on GWO's research and methodology for the PFM "Primary Forcing Mechanism" for climate, plese refer to "The PFM Methodology" in Global Weather Oscillations Section of this web site.

May 27, 2011:

2011 Hurricane Season Forecast

Released to the Public May 23, 2011

Atlantic Names for 2011

Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney

GWO’s PFM Model Predicts 3 to 5 Hurricanes to impact U.S. Coast in 2011, with at least one major Hurricane likely

In September and December of 2010, Global Weather Oscillations, Inc (GWO) issued the 2011 hurricane predictions for 11 zones to GWO clients. The complete zone forecasts, available only to GWO’s clients, pinpoint exactly what areas of the U.S. coast will be at high risk for hurricane and tropical storm conditions in 2011, with accurate zone outlooks going out 3 additional years. GWO, instead of emphasizing a predicted number of named storms in the Atlantic Basin, forecasts where the storms are likely to be tracking, and the risk probability for hurricane conditions for specific zones.

During the 5 years since 2006, GWO has a near 90% forecast accuracy for pinpointing tropical cyclone active areas on or near the U.S. Coastlines (click "here" to view year by year accuracy).

Based primarily on analysis of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) cycles, GWO predicts the 2011 hurricane season to be about as active as last year, but much different from 2010 due to the PFM cycles showing many coastal zones being vulnerable to hurricane and tropical storm landfalls. In addition, in several zones the PFM cycles, which are unique for each zone, indicate moderate to high risks for a major hurricane (Category 3 to 5) during the 2011 season.

Forecast - for the 2011 season, GWO predicts a high risk of 3 hurricanes

impacting the U.S. coastline and a potential risk of up to 5 hurricanes.

GWO also predicts a high risk of one major hurricane making landfall, and a moderate risk that 2 major hurricanes will make landfall.

Although the 2010 hurricane season was very active and well above average in the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, there were no hurricanes that made landfall on the U.S. coastline – a very unusual statistic given the level of activity. In the last 110 years when there were 10 or more hurricanes, at least two hurricanes made landfall on the U.S. coast. The 2010 hurricane season was very active and produced a total of 19 named storms and 2 tropical depressions. There were 12 hurricanes and 7 tropical storms, the most named storms since the 2005 season. The 12 hurricanes in 2010 tied with 1969 for the 2nd highest total on record.

Back in the active 2004 season there were 6 hurricanes that hit coastal areas, and in 2005, 7 tropical cyclones made landfall on the U. S. coast. GWO expects the 2011 season to be similar to the 2004 and 2005 seasons with respect to the portions of the U.S. Coast experiencing hurricane conditions. Repeating the GWO forecast for 2011; the PFM Model predicts 3 to 5 hurricanes to impact the U.S. coast in 2011, with at least one major hurricane landfall likely.
 

May 26, 2011:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2011/april2011/apr2011.pdf

May 24, 2011:

NWS Releases Hurricane Predictions For 2011 Season

The National Weather Service has released its hurricane predictions for the 2011 season.

12 to 18 named storms with the possibility of 3 to 6 of those storms turning into major hurricanes is what the National Weather Service is predicting for the 2011 hurricane season.

Meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Newport
Richard Bandy says last year was also an active season, even though no hurricane hit land.

"Inversely you could have a very low activity season but you could still get hit by hurricane, you could have a season with only one hurricane form, but if it happens near the coast and makes land fall it could cause significant impacts." said Bandy.

Governor Bev Perdue declared next week hurricane preparedness week. She is urging all North Carolina residents to develop or update their family emergency plans and supply kits. Hurricane season begins June 1st and runs through November.

May 16, 2011:

2011 Atlantic hurricane season

First storm formed: Season not started
Last storm dissipated: Season not started
Strongest storm: N/A –
Total depressions: 0
Total fatalities: None
Total damage: Unknown
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2009, 2010, 2011, Post-2011

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will be an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season will officially start on June 1 and end on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin.[1] However, should a tropical or subtropical cyclone form between January 1 and May 31, or between December 1 and December 31, 2011, it would count as part of the 2011 season.

Seasonal forecasts
Predictions of tropical activity in the 2011 season Source Date Named
storms Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1950–2000)[2] 9.6 5.9 2.3
Record high activity 28 15 8
Record low activity 4 2 0†
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
TSR December 6, 2010[3] 11–20 5–11 2–6
CSU December 8, 2010[2] 17 9 5
CSU April 6, 2011[4] 16 9 5
*† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

Noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University issue forecasts of hurricane activity each year, separately from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Klotzbach's team, formerly led by Gray, determined the average number of storms per season between 1950 and 2000 to be 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, of which 5 to 7 reach hurricane strength and 1 to 3 become major hurricanes.[5]

Pre-season forecasts
On December 8, 2010, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2011 season, predicting well above-average activity with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. As well, the team expected an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value of approximately 165, citing that El Niño conditions were unlikely to develop by the start of the season. Lastly, the team noted a higher chance for storms to make landfall in the United States than in 2010.[2] In addition, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium that comprises experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast a few days prior to that of CSU, with similar estimates for the year. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 40% above the 1950–2010 average, with 15.6 (±4.3) tropical storms, 8.4 (±3.0) hurricanes, and 4.0 (±1.7) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 141 (±58).[3] On April 6, 2011, the CSU slightly revised their December forecast, predicting 16 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.[4]

Storm names
The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2011. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2012. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2017 season. This is the same list used in the 2005 season with the exception of Don, Katia, Rina, Sean, and Whitney, which replaced Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma, respectively.[6]

•Arlene (unused)
•Bret (unused)
•Cindy (unused)
•Don (unused)
•Emily (unused)
•Franklin (unused)
•Gert (unused)
•Harvey (unused)
•Irene (unused)
•Jose (unused)
•Katia (unused)
•Lee (unused)
•Maria (unused)
•Nate (unused)
•Ophelia (unused)
•Philippe (unused)
•Rina (unused)
•Sean (unused)
•Tammy (unused)
•Vince (unused)
•Whitney (unused)

Season effects
This is a table of all of the storms that will form in the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. It will include their duration, names, landfall(s), damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses will be additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but are still related to that storm. Damage and deaths will include totals while the storm was extratropical or a wave or low, and all of the damage figures will be in 2011 USD.

May 15, 2011:

"There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity."
When Is the Hurricane Season Most Active?
Again according to the AOML, there's a "very peaked season from August to October," which means this period includes:

•78% of the tropical storm days
•87% of the "minor" hurricane days, and
•96% of the "major" hurricane days
And within this peak hurricane season, early to mid-September is the pinnacle.
Of course Mother Nature isn't reading any calendars, and every once in a while a tropical cyclone hits out of season -- usually in May or December-- or late in the season: Hurricane Wilma, for instance, battered Cancun and the Riviera Maya on October 21 and 22 2005.

If you've heard this old mariner's poem about Caribbean hurricanes:

June- too soon.
July-- stand by!
August-- look out you must.
September-- remember.
October, all over.

-- Wilma was a reminder that October can be risky. (See a graphic of October Caribbean hurricanes over many decades; see also month by month statistics for the Caribbean.)

Even if a hurricane doesn't officially make landfall, its effects can be drastic. Hurricane-force winds can extend 90 miles out from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds might reach 200 miles. (Even "squalls," or heavy thunderstorms, can extend several hundred miles.) Another point: "landfall" only officially occurs when the center of the eye of the storm contacts land. The strongest winds, however, are at the "eye-wall" around the edge of the eye, and this might hit land even if the center does not. (See more about area of hurricane impact.)

Hurricane Season in the Caribbean: Different Areas
Some islands are less prone to violent storms than others, and holiday-goers can try to pick spots strategically. The Dutch Caribbean "ABC" islands -- Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao-- are clustered close to Venezuela, and considered to be out of the main hurricane zone. Trinidad and Tobago, too, are south of the hurricane belt and rarely get hit.

Also, some say that the eastern Caribbean and US East Coast are most at risk from mid-August to mid-September, while in the western Caribbean (which includes Mexico and Belize), the season intensifies from mid-September into early November. Disregarding this conventional wisdom, Jamaica, in the western Caribbean, has mainly been hit during late August and early September...

Once May rolls around, low rates beckon at resorts in the Caribbean and on Mexico's Caribbean coast (Cancun and the Riviera Maya). Yet every few years, one of these popular spots is pummeled by a tropical storm. Florida, too, is vulnerable on the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, and in the Keys to the south. Even tourist powerhouse Orlando -- in the middle of the state-- gets an occasional blast. (See more about the Florida hurricane season.)
Officially, the Atlantic hurricane season is from June 1 to November 30, but as the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) notes:

"There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity."
When Is the Hurricane Season Most Active?
Again according to the AOML, there's a "very peaked season from August to October," which means this period includes:

•78% of the tropical storm days
•87% of the "minor" hurricane days, and
•96% of the "major" hurricane days
And within this peak hurricane season, early to mid-September is the pinnacle.
Of course Mother Nature isn't reading any calendars, and every once in a while a tropical cyclone hits out of season -- usually in May or December-- or late in the season: Hurricane Wilma, for instance, battered Cancun and the Riviera Maya on October 21 and 22 2005.

If you've heard this old mariner's poem about Caribbean hurricanes:

June- too soon.
July-- stand by!
August-- look out you must.
September-- remember.
October, all over.

-- Wilma was a reminder that October can be risky. (See a graphic of October Caribbean hurricanes over many decades; see also month by month statistics for the Caribbean.)

Even if a hurricane doesn't officially make landfall, its effects can be drastic. Hurricane-force winds can extend 90 miles out from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds might reach 200 miles. (Even "squalls," or heavy thunderstorms, can extend several hundred miles.) Another point: "landfall" only officially occurs when the center of the eye of the storm contacts land. The strongest winds, however, are at the "eye-wall" around the edge of the eye, and this might hit land even if the center does not. (See more about area of hurricane impact.)

Hurricane Season in the Caribbean: Different Areas
Some islands are less prone to violent storms than others, and holiday-goers can try to pick spots strategically. The Dutch Caribbean "ABC" islands -- Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao-- are clustered close to Venezuela, and considered to be out of the main hurricane zone. Trinidad and Tobago, too, are south of the hurricane belt and rarely get hit.

Also, some say that the eastern Caribbean and US East Coast are most at risk from mid-August to mid-September, while in the western Caribbean (which includes Mexico and Belize), the season intensifies from mid-September into early November. Disregarding this conventional wisdom, Jamaica, in the western Caribbean, has mainly been hit during late August and early September...

Unfortunately, Mother Nature isn't reading any calendars or maps.

Forecasts for 2011 Hurricane Season
Still, every year experts give their best shots at forecasts. For example, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has ongoing Tropical Storm Forecasts. Their extended range forecast for 2011 is as follows:

"We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Our seasonal forecast has been reduced slightly from early December, since there is a little uncertainty about ENSO and the maintenance of anomalously warm tropical Atlantic SST conditions. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall."
This forecast is dated April 6 2011; check the site for updates.
How To Protect Your Vacation
While the likelihood of a direct hit to your beach resort is small, even if your holiday isn't actually in the path of a major storm, weather patterns are disrupted in a wide radius. Some days may be spoiled by rain and wind if you're in an affected area.

Despite the weather risks, hurricane season is a tempting time to travel because it spans the top two months when kids are out of school. Also -- and not surprisingly!-- very tempting discounts are offered at Caribbean resorts during these months.

May 14, 2011:

Preliminary Report
Hurricane Andrew
16 - 28 August, 1992
Ed Rappaport
National Hurricane Center
(updated 10 December 1993)
(addendum 7 February 2005 - category 5 upgrade)


Andrew was a small and ferocious Cape Verde hurricane that wrought unprecedented economic devastation along a path through the northwestern Bahamas, the southern Florida peninsula, and south-central Louisiana. Damage in the United States is estimated to be near 25 billion, making Andrew the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history1. The tropical cyclone struck southern Dade County, Florida, especially hard, with violent winds and storm surges characteristic of a category 4 hurricane (see addendum on upgrade to category 5) on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale, and with a central pressure (922 mb) that is the third lowest this century for a hurricane at landfall in the United States. In Dade County alone, the forces of Andrew resulted in 15 deaths and up to one-quarter million people left temporarily homeless. An additional 25 lives were lost in Dade County from the indirect effects of Andrew2. The direct loss of life seems remarkably low considering the destruction caused by this hurricane.

a. Synoptic History
Satellite pictures and upper-air data indicate that Hurricane Andrew formed from a tropical wave that crossed from the west coast of Africa to the tropical North Atlantic Ocean on 14 August 1992. The wave moved westward at about 20 kt, steered by a swift and deep easterly current on the south side of an area of high pressure. The wave passed to the south of the Cape Verde Islands on the following day. At that point, meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Satellite Analysis and Forecast (TSAF) unit and the Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB) of the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) found the wave sufficiently well-organized to begin classifying the intensity of the system using the Dvorak (1984) analysis technique.

Convection subsequently became more focused in a region of cyclonic cloud rotation. Narrow spiral-shaped bands of clouds developed around the center of rotation on 16 August. At 1800 UTC on the 16th (UTC precedes EDT by four hours), both the TSAF unit and SAB calculated a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 and the "best track" (Table 1 and Fig. 1 [85K GIF]) shows that the transition from tropical wave to tropical depression took place at that time.

The depression was initially embedded in an environment of easterly vertical wind shear. By midday on the 17th, however, the shear diminished. The depression grew stronger and, at 1200 UTC 17 August, it became Andrew, the first Atlantic tropical storm of the 1992 hurricane season. The tropical cyclone continued moving rapidly on a heading which turned from west to west-northwest. This course was in the general direction of the Lesser Antilles.

Between the 17th and 20th of August, the tropical storm passed south of the center of the high pressure area over the eastern Atlantic. Steering currents carried Andrew closer to a strong upper-level low pressure system centered about 500 n mi to the east-southeast of Bermuda and to a trough that extended southward from the low for a few hundred miles. These currents gradually changed and Andrew decelerated on a course which became northwesterly. This change in heading spared the Lesser Antilles from an encounter with Andrew. The change in track also brought the tropical storm into an environment of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and quite high surface pressures to its north. Although the estimated maximum wind speed of Andrew varied little then, a rather remarkable evolution occurred.

Satellite images suggest that Andrew produced deep convection only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts of about 12 hours duration. Also, the deep convection did not persist. Instead, it was stripped away from the low-level circulation by the strong southwesterly flow at upper levels. Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigated Andrew and, on the 20th, found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained. Andrew's central pressure rose considerably (Fig. 2 [87K GIF]). Nevertheless, the flight-level data indicated that Andrew retained a vigorous circulation aloft. Wind speeds near 70 kt were measured at an altitude of 1500 ft near a convective band lying to the northeast of the low-level center. Hence, Andrew is estimated on 20 August to have been a tropical storm with 40 kt surface winds and an astonishingly high central pressure of 1015 mb (Figs. 2 and 3 [87K GIF]).

Significant changes in the large-scale environment near and downstream from Andrew began by 21 August. Satellite imagery in the water vapor channel indicated that the low aloft to the east-southeast of Bermuda weakened and split. The bulk of the low opened into a trough which retreated northward. That evolution decreased the vertical wind shear over Andrew. The remainder of the low dropped southward to a position just southwest of Andrew where its circulation enhanced the upper-level outflow over the tropical storm. At the same time, a strong and deep high pressure cell formed near the U.S. southeast coast. A ridge built eastward from the high into the southwestern Atlantic with its axis lying just north of Andrew. The associated steering flow over the tropical storm became easterly. Andrew turned toward the west, accelerated to near 16 kt, and quickly intensified.

Andrew reached hurricane strength on the morning of 22 August, thereby becoming the first Atlantic hurricane to form from a tropical wave in nearly two years. An eye formed that morning and the rate of strengthening increased. Just 36 hours later, Andrew reached the borderline between a category 4 and 5 hurricane (see addendum on upgrade to category 5) and was at its peak intensity (Table 1). From 0000 UTC on the 21st (when Andrew had a barely perceptible low-level center) to 1800 UTC on the 23rd the central pressure had fallen by 92 mb, down to 922 mb. A fall of 72 mb occurred during the last 36 hours of that period and qualifies as rapid deepening (Holliday and Thompson, 1979).

The region of high pressure held steady and drove Andrew nearly due west for two and a half days beginning on the 22nd. Andrew was a category 4 hurricane when its eye passed over northern Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas late on the 23rd and then over the southern Berry Islands in the Bahamas early on the 24th. After leaving the Bahamas, Andrew continued moving westward toward southeast Florida.

Andrew weakened when it passed over the western portion of the Great Bahama Bank and the pressure rose to 941 mb. However, the hurricane rapidly reintensified during the last few hours preceding landfall when it moved over the Straits of Florida. During that period, radar, aircraft and satellite data showed a decreasing eye diameter and strengthening "eyewall" convection. Aircraft and inland surface data Fig. 4 [121K GIF]) suggest that the deepening trend continued up to and slightly inland of the coast. For example, the eye temperature measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was at least 1-2C warmer at 1010 UTC (an hour after the eye made landfall) than it was in the last "fix" about 15 n mi offshore at 0804 UTC. These measurements suggest that the convection in the eyewall, and the associated vertical circulation in the eye and eyewall, became more vigorous as the storm moved onshore. The radar data indicated that the convection in the northern eyewall became enhanced with some strong convective elements rotating around the eyewall in a counter-clockwise fashion as the storm made landfall. Numerical models suggest that some enhancement of convection can occur at landfall due to increased boundary-layer convergence in the eyewall region. That situation appeared to have occurred in Andrew. The enhanced convection in the north eyewall probably resulted in strong subsidence in the eye on the inside edge of the north eyewall. This likely contributed to a displacement of the lowest surface pressure to the north of the geometric center of the "radar eye" (cf., Fig. 4 and 6 [107K JPEG]). It is estimated that the central pressure was 922 mb at landfall near Homestead AFB, Florida at 0905 UTC (5:05 A.M. EDT) 24 August (Fig. 4).

The maximum sustained surface wind speed (1-min average at 10 meters [about 33 ft] elevation) during landfall over Florida is estimated at 125 kt (about 145 mph), with gusts at that elevation to at least 150 kt (about 175 mph). The sustained wind speed corresponds to a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (see addendum on upgrade to category 5). It should be noted that these wind speeds are what is estimated to have occurred within the (primarily northern) eyewall in an open environment such as at an airport, at the standard 10-meter height. The wind experienced at other inland sites was subject to complex interactions of the airflow with trees, buildings, and other obstacles in its path. These obstructions create a turbulent, frictional drag that generally reduces the wind speed. However, they can also produce brief, local accelerations of the wind immediately adjacent to the structures. Hence, the wind speed experienced at a given location, such as at a house in the core region of the hurricane, can vary significantly around the structure, and cannot be specified with certainty. The landfall intensity is discussed further in Section b.

Andrew moved nearly due westward when over land and crossed the extreme southern portion of the Florida peninsula in about four hours. Although the hurricane weakened about one category on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale during the transit over land, and the pressure rose to about 950 mb, Andrew was still a major hurricane when its eyewall passed over the extreme southwestern Florida coast.

The first of two cycles of modest intensification commenced when the eye reached the Gulf of Mexico. Also, the hurricane continued to move at a relatively fast pace while its track gradually turned toward the west-northwest.

When Andrew reached the north-central Gulf of Mexico, the high pressure system to its northeast weakened and a strong mid-latitude trough approached the area from the northwest. Steering currents began to change. Andrew turned toward the northwest and its forward speed decreased to about 8 kt. The hurricane struck a sparsely populated section of the south-central Louisiana coast with category 3 intensity at about 0830 UTC on the 26th. The landfall location is about 20 n mi west-southwest of Morgan City.

Andrew weakened rapidly after landfall, to tropical storm strength in about 10 hours and to depression status 12 hours later. During this weakening phase, the cyclone moved northward and then accelerated northeastward. Andrew and its remnants continued to produce heavy rain that locally exceeded 10 inches near its track (Table 2b). By midday on the 28th, Andrew had begun to merge with a frontal system over the mid-Atlantic states.


b. Meteorological Statistics
The best track intensities were obtained from the data presented in Figs. 2, 3, 4, and 5 (95K GIF). The first two of those figures show the curves of Andrew's central pressure and maximum sustained one-minute wind speed, respectively, versus time, along with the observations on which they were based. The figures contain relevant surface observations and intensity estimates derived from analyses of satellite images performed by the TSAF unit, SAB and the Air Force Global Weather Central (USAF in figures). The aircraft data came from reconnaissance flights by the U.S. Air Force Reserve 815th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron based at Keesler AFB, Mississippi. Additional data were collected aboard a NOAA aircraft.

Table 2 lists a selection of surface observations. The anemometer at Harbour Island, near the northern end of Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas, measured a wind speed of 120 kt for an unknown period shortly after 2100 UTC on the 23rd. That wind speed was the maximum that could be registered by the instrument.

Neither of the two conventional measures of hurricane intensity, central barometric pressure and maximum sustained wind speed, were observed at official surface weather stations in close proximity to Andrew at landfall in Florida. Homestead Air Force Base and Tamiami Airport discontinued routine meteorological observations prior to receiving direct hits from the hurricane. Miami International Airport was the next closest station, but it was outside of the eyewall by about 5 nautical miles when Andrew's center passed to the south of that airport.

To supplement the official information, requests for data were made to the public through the local media. Remarkably, more than 100 quantitative observations were received (see Figs. 4 and 5). Many of the reports came from observers who vigilantly took readings through frightening conditions including, in several instances, the moment when their instruments and even their homes were destroyed.

Some of the unofficial observations were dismissed as unrealistic. Others were rendered suspect or eliminated during follow-up inquiries or analyses. The remainder, however, revealed a physically consistent and reasonable pattern.

1. Minimum pressure over Florida
The final offshore "fix" by the reconnaissance aircraft came at 0804 UTC and placed the center of the hurricane only about 15 nautical miles, or roughly one hour of travel time, from the mainland. A dropsonde indicated a pressure of 932 mb at that time. The pressure had been falling at the rate of about 2 mb per hour, but the increasing interaction with land was expected to at least partially offset, if not reverse, that trend. Hence, a landfall pressure within a few millibars of 932 mb seemed reasonable.

Shortly after Andrew's passage, however, reports of minimum pressures below 930 mb were received from the vicinity of Homestead, Florida (Fig. 4). Several of the barometers displaying the lowest pressures were subsequently tested in a pressure chamber and calibrated by the Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) of NOAA. Two key observations came from a Mrs. Hall and Mr. Martens, sister and brother. They rode out the storm in residences about one-quarter mile apart. Mrs. Hall's home was built by her father and grandfather in 1945 to be hurricane-proof. Although some of the windows broke, the 22-inch thick concrete and coral rock walls held steady, allowing her to observe her barometer in relative safety. The AOC tests indicate that the minimum pressure at her home was near 921 mb. The barometer at her brother's home was judged a little more reliable and the reading there was adjusted to 923 mb. Based on the observations and an eastward extrapolation of the pressure pattern to the coastline, Andrew's minimum pressure at landfall is estimated to be 922 mb. This suggests that the trajectory of the dropsonde deployed from the aircraft did not intersect the lowest pressure within the eye.

In the United States, this century, only the Labor Day (Keys') Storm in 1935 [103K GIF] (892 mb) and Hurricane Camille in 1969 [122K GIF] (909 mb) had lower landfall central pressures than Andrew (Hebert et al. 1992).

2. Maximum wind speed over Florida (see addendum on upgrade to category 5)
The strongest winds associated with Andrew on 24 August likely occurred in the hurricane's northern eyewall. The relatively limited number of observations in that area greatly complicates the task of establishing Andrew's maximum sustained wind speed and peak gust at landfall in Florida. While a universally accepted value for Andrew's wind speed at landfall may prove elusive, there is considerable evidence supporting an estimate of about 125 kt for the maximum sustained wind speed, with gusts to at least 150 kt (Fig. 5). (Please see addendum on upgrade to category 5.)

The strongest reported sustained wind near the surface occurred at the Fowey Rocks weather station at 0800 UTC (Fig. 5). The station sits about 11 n mi east of the shoreline and, at that time, was within the northwest part of Andrew's eyewall. The 0800 UTC data included a two-minute wind of 123 kt with a gust to 147 kt at a platform height of about 130 ft. The U.S. National Data Buoy Center used a boundary-layer model to convert the sustained wind to a two-minute wind of 108 kt at 33 ft elevation. The peak one-minute wind during that two-minute period at Fowey Rocks might have been slightly higher than 108 kt.

It is unlikely that this point observation was so fortuitously situated that it represents a sampling of the absolute strongest wind. The Fowey Rocks log (not shown) indicates that the wind speed increased through 0800 UTC. Unfortunately, Fowey Rocks then ceased transmitting data, presumably because even stronger winds disabled the instrumentation. (A subsequent visual inspection indicated that the mast supporting the anemometer had become bent 90 degrees from vertical.) Radar reflectivity data suggests that the most intense portion of Andrew's eyewall had not reached Fowey Rocks by 0800 UTC and that the wind speed could have continued to increase there for another 15 to 30 minutes. A similar conclusion can be reached from the pressure analysis in Fig. 4 which indicates that the pressure at Fowey Rocks probably fell by about another 20 mb from the 0800 UTC mark of 968 mb.

Reconnaissance aircraft provided wind data at a flight level of about 10,000 ft. The maximum wind speed along 10 seconds of flight track (often used by the NHC to represent a one-minute wind speed at flight level) on the last pass prior to landfall was 162 kt, with a spot wind speed of 170 kt observed. The 162 kt wind occurred at 0810 UTC in the eyewall region about 10 n mi to the north of the center of the eye. Like the observation from Fowey Rocks, the aircraft provided a series of "point" observations (i.e., no lateral extent). Somewhat higher wind speeds probably occurred elsewhere in the northern eyewall, a little to the left and/or to the right of the flight track. A wind speed at 10,000 ft is usually reduced to obtain a surface wind estimate. Based on past operational procedures, the 162 kt flight-level wind is compatible with maximum sustained surface winds of 125 kt.

One of the most important wind speed reports came from Tamiami Airport, located about 9 n mi west of the shoreline. As mentioned earlier, routine weather observations ended at the airport before the full force of Andrew's (northern) eyewall winds arrived. However, the official weather observer there, Mr. Scott Morrison, remained on-station and continued to watch the wind speed dial. Mr. Morrison notes that around 0845 UTC (0445 EDT) the wind speed indicator "pegged" at a position a little beyond the dial's highest marking of 100 kt, at a point that he estimates corresponds to about 110 kt. (Subsequent tests of the wind speed dials observed at the airport indicate that the needles peg at about 105 kt and 108 kt, respectively). He recounts that the needle was essentially fixed at that spot for three to five minutes, and then fell back to 0 when the anemometer failed. Mr. Morrison's observations have been closely corroborated by two other people. He has also noted that the weather conditions deteriorated even further after that time and were at their worst about 30 minutes later. This information suggests that, in all likelihood, the maximum sustained wind speed at Tamiami Airport significantly exceeded 105 kt.

A number of the wind speeds reported by the public could not be substantiated and are therefore excluded from Fig. 5. The reliability of some of the others suffer from problems that include non-standard averaging periods and instrument exposures, and equipment failures prior to the arrival of the strongest winds.

The only measurement of a sustained wind in the southern eyewall came from an anemometer on the mast of an anchored sailboat (see Fig. 5). For at least 13 minutes the anemometer there showed 99 kt, which was the maximum that the readout could display. A small downward adjustment of the speed should probably be applied because the instrument was sitting 17 m above the surface rather than at the standard height of 10 m. On the other hand, the highest one-minute wind speed during that 13-minute period could have been quite a bit stronger than 99 kt. Again, there may have been stronger winds elsewhere in the southern eyewall. For a westward-moving hurricane the wind speed in the northern eyewall usually exceeds the wind speed in the southern eyewall by about twice the forward speed of the hurricane (Dunn and Miller 1964). In the case of Andrew, that difference is about 32 kt, and suggests a maximum sustained wind stronger than 130 kt.

Several indirect measures of the sustained wind speed are of interest. First, a standard empirical relationship between central pressure and wind speed (Kraft 1961) applied to 922 mb yields around 135 kt. Second, the Dvorak technique classification performed by the NHC Tropical Satellite Analysis and Forecast unit using a 0900 UTC satellite image gives 127 kt. Also, an analysis of the pressure pattern in Fig. 4 gives a maximum gradient wind of around 140 kt.

The strongest gust reported from near the surface occurred in the northern eyewall a little more than a mile from the shoreline at the home of Mr. Randy Fairbank. He observed a gust of 184 kt moments before portions of a windward wall failed, preventing further observation. The hurricane also destroyed the anemometer. To evaluate the accuracy of the instrument, three anemometers of the type used by Mr. Fairbank were tested in a wind tunnel at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Although the turbulent nature of the hurricane winds could not be replicated, the results of the wind tunnel tests suggest that the gust Mr. Fairbank observed was less than 184 kt and probably near 154 kt. Of course, stronger gusts may have occurred there at a later time, or at another site. Damage at that location was significantly less than the damage to similar structures located about 2 miles south of this neighborhood, implying even stronger winds than observed at this location.

Strong winds also occurred outside of the eyewall, especially in association with convective bands (Fig. 6). A peak gust to 139 kt was observed at a home near the northern end of Dade County (Fig. 5) on an anemometer of the brand used by Mr. Fairbank. Applying the reduction suggested by the wind tunnel tests to 139 kt yields an estimate close to the 115 kt peak gust (a five-second average) registered on a National Ocean Survey anemometer located not far to the east, at the coast.

3. Storm surge
During the afternoon of 23 August, Andrew crossed over the north end of the island of Eleuthera in the Bahamas and generated significant storm surge flooding. Two high water marks were recorded and referenced to mean sea level. The first mark of 16 ft was recorded in a house in the town of Little Bogue. The second mark of 23 ft was recorded in a damaged house in the town of The Current several miles west of Lower Bogue. Since this structure was located near the shoreline it suggests that battering waves riding on top of the storm surge helped to create this very high water mark.

During the morning hour of 24 August, Andrew generated storm surge along shorelines of southern Florida (Fig. 7) (103K GIF). On the southeast Florida coast, peak storm surge arrived near the time of high astronomical tide. The height of the storm tide (the sum of the storm surge and astronomical tide, referenced to mean sea level) ranged from 4 to 6 ft in northern Biscayne bay increasing to a maximum value of 16.9 ft at the Burger King International Headquarters, located on the western shoreline in the center of the bay, and decreasing to 4 to 5 ft in southern Biscayne Bay. The observed storm tide values on the Florida southwest coast ranged from 4 to 5 ft near Flamingo to 6 to 7 ft near Goodland.

Storm tides in Louisiana were at least 8 ft (Table 2a) and caused flooding from Lake Borgne westward through Vermillion Bay.


4. Tornadoes
There have been no confirmed reports of tornadoes associated with Andrew over the Bahamas or Florida. Funnel sightings, some unconfirmed, were reported in the Florida counties of Glades, Collier and Highlands, where Andrew crossed in daylight. In Louisiana, one tornado occurred in the city of Laplace several hours prior to Andrew's landfall. That tornado killed 2 people and injured 32 others. Tornadoes in the Ascension, Iberville, Baton Rouge, Pointe Coupee, and Avoyelles parishes of Louisiana reportedly did not result in casualties. Numerous reports of funnel clouds were received by officials in Mississippi and tornadoes were suspected to have caused damage in several Mississippi counties. In Alabama, the occurrence of two damaging tornadoes has been confirmed over the mainland while another tornado may have hit Dauphin Island. As Andrew and its remnants moved northeastward over the eastern states, it continued to produce severe weather. For example, several damaging tornadoes in Georgia late on 27 August were attributed to Andrew.

5. Rainfall
Andrew dropped sufficient rain to cause local floods even though the hurricane was relatively small and generally moved rather fast. Rainfall totals in excess of seven inches were recorded in southeast Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi (Table 2b). Rainfall amounts near five inches occurred in several neighboring states. Hammond, Louisiana reported the highest total, 11.92 inches.

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
Table 3 lists a count of casualties and damages associated with Andrew. The number of deaths directly attributed to Andrew is 26. The additional indirect loss of life brought the death toll to 65 (see footnote 2). A combination of good hurricane preparedness and evacuation programs likely helped minimize the loss of life. Nevertheless, the fact that no lives were lost in the United States due to storm surge is viewed as a fortunate aberration.

Table 3a reveals that more than one-half of the fatalities were indirect. Many of the indirect deaths occurred during the "recovery phase" following Andrew's passage.

Damage is estimated at $25 billion. Andrew's impact on southern Dade County, Florida was extreme from the Kendall district southward through Homestead and Florida City, to near Key Largo (Table 3b). Andrew reportedly destroyed 25,524 homes and damaged 101,241 others. The Dade County Grand Jury reported that ninety percent of all mobile homes in south Dade County were totally destroyed. In Homestead, more than 99% (1167 of 1176) of all mobile homes were completely destroyed. The Miami Herald reported $0.5 billion in losses to boats in southeast Florida.

The most devasted areas correspond closely in location to the regions overspread by Andrew's eyewall and its accompanying core of destructive winds and, near the coastline, decimating storm surges. Flight-level data about an hour prior to landfall places the radius of maximum wind at 11 n mi (in the northern eyewall at 10,000 ft altitude). The radius of maximum wind at the surface was likely a little less than 11 n mi. (Figure 6) displays a radar reflectivity pattern (similar to rainfall intensity) about 30 minutes prior to landfall, superimposed on a map of southern Florida, from which it can be seen that the average diameter of the "radar" eye was about 11 n mi at landfall.)

The damage to Louisiana is estimated at $1 billion.

Damage in the Bahamas has been estimated at $0.25 billion.

Andrew whipped up powerful seas which extensively damaged many offshore structures, including the artificial reef system of southeast Florida. For example, the Belzona Barge is a 215 ft, 350-ton barge that, prior to Andrew, was sitting in 68 ft of water on the ocean floor. One thousand tons of concrete from the old Card Sound bridge lay on the deck. The hurricane moved the barge 700 ft to the west (50-100 tons of concrete remain on deck) and removed several large sections of steel plate sidings.

Damage in the Gulf of Mexico is preliminarily estimated at $0.5 billion. Ocean Oil reported the following in the Gulf of Mexico: 13 toppled platforms, five leaning platforms, 21 toppled satellites, 23 leaning satellites, 104 incidents of structural damage, seven incidents of pollution, two fires, and five drilling wells blown off location.

Hurricanes are notoriously capricious. Andrew was a compact system. A little larger system, or one making landfall just a few nautical miles further to the north, would have been catastrophic for heavily populated, highly commercialized and no less vulnerable areas to the north. That area includes downtown Miami, Miami Beach, Key Biscayne and Fort Lauderdale. Andrew also left the highly vulnerable New Orleans region relatively unscathed.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Track forecast errors by the NHC and by the suite of track prediction models are given in Table 4. On average, the NHC errors were about 30% smaller than the current 10-year average. The most significant changes in Andrew's track and intensity (see Fig. 1, Table 1) were generally well anticipated (noted in NHC's Tropical Cyclone Discussions) and the forecast tracks generally lie close to the best track. However, the rate of Andrew's westward acceleration over the southwestern Atlantic was greater than initially forecast. In addition, the NHC forecast a rate of strengthening that was less than what occurred during Andrew's period of rapid deepening.

Several of the dynamic track models had stellar performances during this hurricane. The Aviation Model and a tracking routine that follows a simulated hurricane vortex (AVNO) performed especially well. However, this was the first storm for which AVNO output was available to NHC forecasters. Hence, its operational reliability was not established. The GFDL and QLM models also had small errors. It should be pointed out, however, that the NHC works on a six-hourly forecast cycle and that the models mentioned above are run just once per 12 hours. Moreover, the output from these models becomes available to forecasters no earlier than the following six-hour forecast cycle.

Historically, the NHC90 statistical-dynamical model has been the most accurate of NHC's track guidance models. The NHC90 errors were rather large during Andrew. Because the NHC90 uses output from the Aviation Model it is possible that the recent changes in the latter model may be responsible for the NHC90's degraded performance.

Table 5 lists a chronology of watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Government of the Bahamas. The associated lead times (based on landfall of the eye) are given in Table 6.

Massive evacuations were ordered in Florida and Louisiana as the likelihood of Andrew making landfall in those regions increased (Table 7). About 55,000 people left the Florida Keys. Evacuations were ordered for 517,000 people in Dade County, 300,000 in Broward County, 315,000 in Palm Beach County and 15,000 in St. Lucie County. For counties further west in Florida, evacuation totals exceeding one thousand people are Collier (25,000), Glades (4,000) and Lee (2,500).

It is estimated that 1,250,000 people evacuated from parishes in southeastern and south-central Louisiana.

About 250,000 people evacuated from Orange and Jefferson Counties in Texas.

The winds in Hurricane Andrew wreaked tremendous structural damage, particularly in southern Dade County. Notwithstanding, the loss of life in Hurricane Andrew, while very unfortunate, was far less than has previously occurred in hurricanes of comparable strength. Historical data suggests that storm surge is the greatest threat to life. Some lives were likely saved by the evacuation along the coastline of southeast Florida. The relatively small loss of life there serves as testimony to the success and importance of coordinated programs of hurricane preparedness.

May 13, 2011:

Hurricane Season 2011: Tropical Depression 03W (Western North Pacific Ocean)

NASA Satellites See Moderate Rainfall in Tropical Depression 03W, Affecting the Philippines

Moderate rainfall abounds in newly strengthened Tropical Depression 03W near the Philippines, according to data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. NASA's Aqua satellite confirmed the data through cold cloud-top temperatures and rain continues to fall in the Philippines today where the storm has been given the local name "Bebeng."

System 93W strengthened into Tropical Depression Three early on May 6 and is forecast to move toward Luzon late into the weekend. At 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) on May 6, the center of TD03W was located east of Visayas about 460 nautical miles east-southeast of Manila, the Philippines near 11.9 North and 138.0 East. It was moving toward the northwest at 3 knots. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 knots.

On May 6, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) had not issued any warnings in the Philippines. The forecast from PAGASA on Friday, May 6 noted that clouds and scattered showers would affect the Bicol Region, Visayas and northern Mindanao, with thunderstorms developing over the Bicol Region and Visayas. Some of the rainfall could be heavy in those areas and may trigger flash flooding and landslides.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, managed by NASA and the Japanese Space Agency flew over Tropical Depression 03W (TD03W) on Friday, May 6 at 0837 UTC (4:37 a.m. EDT). TRMM noticed that the storm's rainfall was still concentrated on the western side of circulation, although the northern and eastern areas of the storm were also showing rainfall. Only a couple of very small areas of heavy rainfall were seen in the TRMM image around the northeastern fringes of circulation. In those small, isolated areas rain was falling at about 2 inches (50 mm) per hour. Rainfall around the rest of the storm was moderate, falling at rates between 20 and 40 millimeters (.78 to 1.57 inches) per hour.

TRMM images are pretty complicated to create. They're made at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. At Goddard, rain rates in the center of the swath (the satellite's orbit path over the storm) are created from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) instrument. The TRMM PR is the only space borne radar of its kind. The rain rates in the outer portion of the storm are created from a different instrument on the satellite, called the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). The rain rates are then overlaid on infrared (IR) data from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS). For more information about TRMM, visit: http://www.trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/.

NASA's Aqua satellite flew over TD03W on May 6 at 4:41 UTC (12:41 a.m. EDT) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument onboard captured an infrared image the storm. The AIRS image showed TD03W as a slightly elongated storm with some very cold cloud top temperatures indicating some high cloud tops and strong thunderstorms. The coldest cloud-tops were as cold as or colder than -63F (-52C).

Infrared and microwaves satellite imagery showed that although the low-level circulation center is slightly elongated, it is consolidating and there are bands of thunderstorms wrapping into the center. Convection (rapidly rising air that form the thunderstorms that power TD03W) has increased near the center.

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center expect TD03W to continue intensifying slowly before making landfall on Monday, May 9 - then weaken over Luzon.

May 12, 2011:

NASA Satellites See System 93W Still Strengthening, Affecting Philippines

It seems to be a matter of time before System 93W strengthens into a tropical storm and infrared satellite imagery from NASA's Aqua satellite seems to go along with that idea. Aqua imagery showed some strong convection particularly on the west side of the low pressure area today, and rain is already falling in parts of the Philippines.

An infrared image taken from the AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite on May 4 at 17:11 UTC (1:11 p.m. EDT) showed large areas of strong convection on System 93W's west and southern edges, where thunderstorms have very cold cloud-top temperatures (-63F/-52C). That strong convection remained on the low's western side on May 5.

On May 5, System 93W's circulation center appears to be near 11.1 North and 128.3 East, about 475 nautical miles (546 miles/879 km) east-southeast of Manila, the Philippines. The surface winds are still estimated between 15 and 20 knots (17-23 mph/28-37kmh). System 93W is still in warm waters that will assist in its strengthening as it continues moving to the northwest near 8 knots (9 mph/15 kmh).

The eastern Philippines are already experiencing some light rains from System 93W. At 12 p.m. EDT on May 5, the city of Legazpi (capital of the province of Albay), Philippines reported light rain with a temperature of 25C/ 77F. The minimum central pressure was 29.80 inches and falling and winds were blowing from the northeast at 5 mph (4 knots). Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Friday, May 6 and Saturday May 7, as System 93W moves closer.

The low-level circulation center still appears to be somewhat loosely organized, but there are some banding of thunderstorms wrapping into System 93W's center. The upper level winds are cooperating for further development, and currently the Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives this low a good prognosis for developing into a tropical storm.
 

May 11, 2011:

Tropically-Speaking - NASA Satellite Imagery Shows Big System 93W Developing

System 93W is a large low pressure area in the Western North Pacific Ocean that appears poised for tropical development in NASA satellite imagery. Improved circulation and warm sea surface temperatures provide some hints of a strengthening storm.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured both an infrared and visible image of System 93W on May 4 at 01:53 UTC (May 3 at 9:53 p.m. EDT). The width of the AIRS image track is 1056 miles (1700 km), the width of System 93W appears to be approximately 800 miles (1,287 km) from west to east.

The AIRS imagery showed an improved low-level circulation center and unorganized, but deep convection. Convection is rapidly rising air that forms the thunderstorms that power a tropical cyclone.

The strongest convection appeared around the center of System 93W's circulation where cloud-top temperatures were measured to be as cold as or colder than -63F/-52C. Cloud-top temperatures are important because they tell forecasters how high thunderstorms are, and the higher the thunderstorm, the colder the cloud tops and the more powerful the thunderstorms.

Today, May 4, the low pressure area was located about 180 nautical miles east of Mindanao, the Philippines today, near 9.4 North and 129.0 East. Its surface winds are estimated between 15 and 20 knots. The system is moving west-northwestward at 11 knots (~12 mph/20 kmh).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) noted that a buoy about 100 nautical miles to away reported a minimum central pressure of 1005 millibars. With sea surface temperatures near 84F (29C), the waters are warm enough to support development into a tropical storm. Wind shear is also low, which will help with development. The JTWC gives System 93W a good chance for development into a tropical storm over the next 24 hours.

May 10, 2011:

Prepare the Home for 2011 Hurricane Season

Parkersburg, W. Va. (PRWEB) May 10, 2011
Batten down the hatches --- plus the windows, the doors and the roof. Hurricane Season 2011 starts on June 1, and based on expert predictions, it could be a whopper.

At Colorado State University, forecasters believe the number of named storms will reach 16, and they predict there’s a 72 percent chance that the entire United States coastline will be affected by at least one major hurricane landfall in 2011. The Weather Research Center in Houston has forecast at least 10 named storms in 2011 with six of them projected to intensify into hurricanes. And, they’re predicting that coastal areas in west Florida, Louisiana and Alabama have a 90 percent chance that they’ll be in the line of a dangerous hurricane.

“Homeowners all along the East Coast and throughout the Gulf of Mexico should prepare for potentially severe weather this year,” says Jill F. Hasling, president of the Weather Research Center. “Now is the time to evaluate your home’s exterior and determine how well it is prepared to withstand hurricane-force winds, torrential rain and flying debris.”

Hasling speaks from experience. In 2008, Hurricane Ike reached into the Houston area doing significant damage to structures near the Weather Research Center. “We had impact-resistant Simonton StormBreaker Plus® windows installed on our facility more than five years ago and they made all the difference in keeping our building safe during that storm,” says Hasling. “We strongly advise people to make it a priority during Hurricane Preparedness Week, which is May 22 to 28, to completely evaluate the four most vulnerable areas of the home --- windows, entry doors, the roof and the garage door. If any of these are compromised, the wind and rain that enters the home can cause extensive damage.”

To help protect against severe weather, Simonton StormBreaker Plus vinyl windows and doors are constructed of remarkably sturdy reinforced vinyl profiles. Insulating glass units feature impact-resistant laminated glass that helps withstand high winds and flying debris without the need for plywood or shutters. Energy-efficient, impact-resistant StormBreaker Plus windows and doors are tested to meet the American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA) standards for use in a High Velocity Hurricane Zone (HVHZ) for the Florida Building Commission and to meet the Texas Department of Insurance (TDI) evaluation for the Texas Gulf Coast.

According to home improvement expert Tom Kraeutler, selecting the right door for a home is also a critical decision. “Hurricane-force weather conditions can be extreme for hundreds of miles inland, so it’s important that homeowners seriously consider upgrading with impact-resistant building products,” says Kraeutler, host of the nationally syndicated radio show The Money Pit. “The Tru-Defense Door System found on Therma-Tru® fiberglass entry doors maximizes the seal between the door and the frame to help keep out the damaging effects of wind and rain. This system is engineered to work together and meets building codes across the country, including in severe weather zones. One of the great things about this type of energy-efficient door construction is that it can be requested on both entry doors and patio doors.”


Therma-Tru offers impact-resistant decorative glass options for its fiberglass entry doors, plus a line of Opaque Impact Rated Doors that are recommended for areas with the most potential to experience severe weather conditions. The doors are designed with a steel plate inside to help withstand hurricane force winds and are Florida code and High Velocity High Winds approved for Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

A home’s roof is another vulnerable area during high winds and driving rain. Roofs should be examined yearly to determine if there are missing shingles, curling or splitting shingles, lifting shingles or loss of granules. Both straight line winds and pressurized winds can cause different damage --- from uplifting the shingles off the roof to pushing intense wind-driven rain and flying debris onto the roof.

“Once air pressure moves through a hole in a roof and into the home during a hurricane, it can literally blow out the walls and windows of the house,” says Kraeutler. “It’s vital for homeowners in potential hurricane areas to have well-installed, solid roofs overhead to protect their homes and prized possessions.”

Backed by a limited 50-year warranty, the virtually maintenance-free polymer slate and shake roofing tiles from DaVinci Roofscapes® have achieved Class 4 ratings for impact resistance along with the Miami Dade County Acceptance (High Velocity Hurricane Winds) and TDI, showing that the roofing tiles can withstand hurricane-force winds. In addition, DaVinci roofing tiles are rated Class A for fire retardance and have achieved the highest rating for straight line wind testing at 110 mph.

“Homeowners should make sure they have proper bracing, such as galvanized metal hurricane straps, to connect the roof to the walls of the home,” says Kraeutler. “This can help prevent uplift during hurricane-force winds. For a second step, consider impact-resistant polymer roofing tiles that have been formulated and tested to withstand hurricane strength winds and severe impact. That’s a winning combination for a roof.”

Kraeutler stresses that homeowners should always follow direction of local authorities regarding evacuations and emergency procedures during severe weather. “More than likely in extreme weather situations, you’ll have to evacuate,” says Kraeutler. “But when you invest in impact-resistant building products that are always ‘on guard’ you can leave knowing that your family’s home and cherished possessions are secure. That can bring incredible peace-of-mind during a highly stressful time.”

May 9, 2011:

The Florida Attorney General's Office is investigating a South Florida manufacturer and home improvement retailer for labeling and selling fabric shutters labeled as approved for hurricane protection when they were not.

State regulators recently issued a consumer warning about window film companies aggressively marketing their wares as inexpensive storm proofing for homes when, in fact, none have been approved for residential use in Florida.

And Miami-Dade County building and compliance officials are investigating a complaint against a company that allegedly sold what it claimed were hurricane-resistant doors, but used another manufacturer's product approval numbers.

As hurricane season approaches, these incidents highlight why regulators say homeowners need to be sure shutters, impact windows and any other hurricane-protection items they buy are officially approved by state and county officials.

The costs of not doing so: You could be spending money on items that will provide little more than a false sense of security during hurricane season, which starts June 1.

"We often get consumers calling us, asking if [a manufacturer] has state approval. Sometimes they aren't on our list," said Mo Madani, manager of building codes and standards for Florida's Department of Community Affairs.

The advice from Madani and hurricane industry protection groups: Ask your contractor for the approval number, required for such products, or get it off the mandatory label required on all certified products. Then verify it with one of the two certifying building authorities — the Miami-Dade County Building Department and the Florida Building Commission.

Consumers who unknowingly buy uncertified materials could find, when it comes time to pull a permit, their improvements won't meet local building codes, officials said. They could be disqualified from insurance discounts. And they could be putting their families and their property at risk.

Former Attorney General Bill McCollum, in a September advisory, said companies claiming their window film would secure homes in storms gave homeowners "a false sense of security" and left them "vulnerable to the destructive forces of hurricane winds and flying debris."

No window film has received approval so far as Florida residential hurricane protection. The product is attached to existing glass like tinting, not anchored to the house or window framing, and prevents glass shards from flying on impact.

Films sometimes are used in large commercial projects, where shutters are impractical, but those jobs are specially engineered and usually certified individually.

The Attorney General's Office has received 60 complaints involving hurricane protection over the past five years, although it's not known how many are related to product approvals.

A provision in a major construction and inspection bill (SB 396) making its way toward a final vote in the Florida Senate would make it illegal to advertise, sell or distribute unapproved products as hurricane or windstorm protection. The legislation had been promoted by the International Hurricane Protection Association, an industry group concerned about unapproved films being marketed as storm resistant.

Storm protection installations in Miami-Dade must use Miami-Dade code-approved products to receive building permits and pass inspections. Palm Beach County jobs can use materials approved by either Miami-Dade's code or the slightly less stringent standards under the Florida Building Commission.

Products used on Broward County jobs can have approvals issued either by Miami-Dade or the state building commission. But if they received state approval, they also must have passed the same high velocity hurricane zone (HVHZ) standards required in Miami-Dade.

To gain certification under standards first put into place after Hurricane Andrew, a manufacturer must submit positive results from tests done by an approved independent lab. They gauge such factors as resistance to wind pressure and water leakage; one measures impact resistance to pieces of lumber or pellets fired at a shutter, glass or covering.

May 8, 2011:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2010/dec2010/dec2010.pdf

May 7, 2011:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2011/april2011/apr2011.pdf

January 11, 2011:

December 28, 2010:

History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2011 will be held May 22nd through May 28th. The goal of this Hurricane Preparedness Web site is to inform the public about the hurricane hazards and provide knowledge which can be used to take ACTION. This information can be used to save lives at work, home, while on the road, or on the water. HISTORY HURRICANE HAZARDS FORECAST PREPARE ACT Sunday 22 May '11 Monday 23 May '11 Tuesday 24 May '11 Wednesday 25 May '11 Thursday 26 May '11 Friday 27 May '11 Saturday 28 May '11 Hurricane hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding. This means it is important for your family to have a plan that includes all of these hazards. Look carefully at the safety actions associated with each type of hurricane hazard and prepare your family disaster plan accordingly. But remember this is only a guide. The first and most important thing anyone should do when facing a hurricane threat is to use common sense. You should be able to answer the following questions before a hurricane threatens: What are the Hurricane Hazards? What does it mean to you? What actions should you take to be prepared?   Download the Hurricane Preparedness Week Poster (2010 version) High Resolution Poster (13 MB PDF) High Resolution Poster (1.5 MB JPG) Visit the NOAA Coastal Services Center Historical Hurricane Tracks website to learn about historical tropical cyclones occurring in different areas located throughout the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. The website provides information about U.S. coastal county population versus hurricane strikes as well as links to various Internet resources focusing on tropical cyclones. The interactive mapping application allows you to search the National Hurricane Center historical tropical cyclone database and graphically display storms affecting your area since 1851. December 27, 2010: Colorado State team: “above average” 2011 hurricane season by Eliot Kleinberg It’s hard to think about hurricanes during a South Florida cold snap. But here goes: The team at Colorado State University came out today with its 2011 hurricane season forecast, its 28th year of prognostication. Noted soothsayer William Gray and his protégé, Philip Klotzbach, called for 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes. It said five of those would grow to major storms, at Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with top sustained winds of at least 111 mph. In 2010, the team’s June prediction was 18, 10 and 5. There were 19, 12 and 5. The historical average (1950-2000) is 9.6, 5.9, and 2.3. The team said it was uncertain whether the tropics still would be under the influence of La Niña — the opposite of El Niño, the warm water phenomenon that tends to hinder hurricane activity — or be in a “neutral” condition. “Sea surface temperatures in the far North Atlantic remain at record warm levels, which is an indication that we are in an active multi-decadal period for Atlantic hurricane activity,” Klotzbach said in a release. The team gave a 49 percent chance a major hurricane will strike the Florida peninsula and a 73 percent chance for the U.S. coastline; the long-term averages are 31 percent and 52 percent, respectively. The team will update its predictions on April 6, June 1 and Aug. 3. The season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. It’s important to remember that such forecasts are of interest mostly as mental exercises and should have no impact on how you prepare for hurricane season. This year was a great example. It tied for the third busiest on record. But none of the dozen hurricanes struck the U.S. coastline, much less South Florida. While the predictions are interesting, there’s no a magic number above which the world is going to end and below which we are completely safe. Residents are urged to prepare every year as if at least one hurricane will hit them, which of course could happen in either a busy year or a quiet one.  December 24, 2010: Price should NOT be the only determining factor when choosing a company for your Hurricane Protection needs. Make a WISE choice and consider the following: Licensed and Insured Contractor (My Florida License.com) Top rating by the Better Business Bureau Established company that will be around in 5-10 years for service work Ask for Testimonials from previous customers and for referrals in your area GARAGE DOOR BRACING Even with shutters, if your garage door fails, the full force of the hurricane will enter your home and could possibly blow off your roof or otherwise seriously damage your home. High quality aircraft grade aluminum. Lightweight (14 lbs). Incredibly strong. Telescoping design. Fits garage doors up to 8' tall. 5 minute install. Learn more about Garage Door Braces from Secure Door. TOP of page IMPACT RESISTANT WINDOWS AND DOORS Provide effortless hurricane protection Some windows cannot accommodate an Accordion Shutter. This is when an Impact Window is the solution and provides effortless Hurricane Protection. A special silicone glazing process keeps the glass from shattering. Although the glass may crack, the inner layer keeps the glass intact preventing debris from entering your home. TOP of page STAND-BY AUTOMATIC GENERATORS As the #1 Selling Home Standby Generator, GUARDIAN is the choice of Homeowners and Business owners. Unlike a portable generator, you don't have to go outside, run a maze of extension cords or bother with gasoline, because an automatic stand-by generator operates on your LP or Natural gas supply. The Stand-By generator turns on within 30 seconds of a utility outage. After power returns, the generator shuts itself off and awaits the next outage. JAW Construction, Inc. is an authorized dealer for Guardian Generators. TOP of page WIND MITIGATION INSPECTION Florida Statute 626.0629 requires Insurance companies to offer Florida homeowners "discounts, credits, or other rate differentials..." for construction techniques that reduce damage and loss in windstorms. If you have a Windstorm insurance policy and HAVE NOT had an inspection done, we can SAVE you money on your current policy! Learn more about Wind Mitigation Inspections. December 25, 2010: Browse Cat Breeds Abyssinian Abyssinians aren't for those who want decorative cats to match the rust-colored carpet, or for those who want cats that enjoy ... Read more about the Abyssinian cat breed. American Bobtail While the breed is still developing, breeders say that Bobtails are playful, energetic, and friendly, and possess an uncanny ... Read more about the American Bobtail cat breed. American Curl Curls have qualities other than the whimsical ears to make them attractive pets. They are people cats that do not show any of ... Read more about the American Curl cat breed. American Shorthair When describing the American Shorthair, the expression 'happy medium' springs to mind. These all-American cats are medium in ... Read more about the American Shorthair cat breed. American Wirehair Wirehairs are people cats that crave human attention and affection. They are active without being hyper, and affectionate ... Read more about the American Wirehair cat breed. Balinese Balinese cats are smart, sweet, and fun to be around. Like the Siamese, they are known for their ability to communicate vocally, ... Read more about the Balinese cat breed. Bengal The Bengal may look like a wild cat, but breeders insist that the Bengal is as lovably friendly and docile as any full-blooded ... Read more about the Bengal cat breed. Birman Birmans are affectionate, gentle, and faithful companions with an air of dignity that seems to invite adoration by their human ... Read more about the Birman cat breed. Bombay If an aloof, independent cat is what you're craving, this breed isn't for you. Bombays are attached to their family, and tend to ... Read more about the Bombay cat breed. British Shorthair If you're looking for a cat that will loot your refrigerator and swing dizzily from your chandeliers, then the British Shorthair ... Read more about the British Shorthair cat breed. Burmese Breeders and fanciers report that Burmese are amusing, playful, and super-smart, the perfect interactive cats for home, office, ... Read more about the Burmese cat breed. Chartreux Known for their hunting prowess, Chartreux cats may have been taken in by those monks long ago to rid the monastery of vermin. ... Read more about the Chartreux cat breed. Cornish Rex Cornish Rexes are good for folks who like having their lives run by active, inquisitive, gazelle-like felines that love a good ... Read more about the Cornish Rex cat breed. Cymric The personality of the Cymric has won a strong following despite the breeding challenges. Cymrics are intelligent, fun-loving ... Read more about the Cymric cat breed. Devon Rex Devons have been compared to pixies, elves, and, of course, space aliens for their jumbo-sized satellite-dish ears, large, ... Read more about the Devon Rex cat breed. Egyptian Mau While fanciers might at first be attracted to the Egyptian Mau's beautiful spotted coat, most become enthusiasts because of the ... Read more about the Egyptian Mau cat breed. Exotic Shorthair Some folks who don't appreciate that laid-back, mellow personality label Persians and their relatives 'furniture with fur', but ... Read more about the Exotic Shorthair cat breed. Havana Brown More distinctive than the muzzle, ears, or minklike coat is the Havana Brown?s personality. Although still quite rare and for ... Read more about the Havana Brown cat breed. Himalayan Himmies, as fanciers call them, are perfect indoor cat companions. They are gentle, calm, and sweet-tempered, but they possess a ... Read more about the Himalayan cat breed. Japanese Bobtail Bobs make outstanding companions. They're curious, bold, intelligent, and alert, and easily adjust to new people, situations, ... Read more about the Japanese Bobtail cat breed. Javanese Javanese cats, like their Balinese relatives, are playful, devoted, and always eager to tell you their views on life, love, and ... Read more about the Javanese cat breed. Korat Korats are not as vocal as their Siamese comrades; they have other ways of getting their wishes across. At dinnertime they'll ... Read more about the Korat cat breed. Maine Coon No breed has a monopoly on love and affection, but there's got to be some good reason that the Maine Coon has clawed his way up ... Read more about the Maine Coon cat breed. Manx The Manx's personality is probably the reason the breed has won such a strong following despite the physical difficulties and ... Read more about the Manx cat breed. Munchkin For their part, Munchkins, oblivious to the controversy surrounding them, go on being just what they are, cats; self-assured and ... Read more about the Munchkin cat breed. Nebelung Nebelungs are mild, soft-spoken, and gentle. They are generally reserved around strangers, ranging from hiding-under-the-bed ... Read more about the Nebelung cat breed. Norwegian Forest Cat Natural athletes, Norwegian Forest Cats love to investigate counters, bookcases, and the loftiest peaks of their cat trees. ... Read more about the Norwegian Forest Cat cat breed. Ocicat Ocicats may look wild, but they are actually affectionate, curious, and playful, and possess a very strong devotion to their ... Read more about the Ocicat cat breed. Oriental The personality of the Oriental is as distinctive as the multicolored exterior. They are natural entertainers, full of ... Read more about the Oriental cat breed. Persian If you want your cats bouncing around like hyperactive popcorn, don't buy a Persian. Persians are perfect companions, if you ... Read more about the Persian cat breed. Ragdoll Docile, mild-mannered, and congenial, Rag-dolls make ideal indoor companions. One of the nicest features of these cats is their ... Read more about the Ragdoll cat breed. Russian Blue Russian Blues are gentle, genteel cats, and are usually reserved, or absent, when strangers are around. When they're with their ... Read more about the Russian Blue cat breed. Scottish Fold Scottish Folds are intelligent, sweet-tempered, soft-spoken, and easily adaptable to new people and situations. They are very ... Read more about the Scottish Fold cat breed. Selkirk Rex Selkirks are fun-loving, mellow cats with a generous measure of love and affection for their human companions. Very people-... Read more about the Selkirk Rex cat breed. Siamese Some cats seem to think that a purr or a friendly rub speaks louder than words. Siamese are not of this school of thought and ... Read more about the Siamese cat breed. Siberian Siberians are affectionate cats with a good dose of personality and playfulness. They are amenable to handling, and breeders ... Read more about the Siberian cat breed. Singapura Singapuras, happily unaware of the controversy surrounding them, go right on being what they are: pesky people pleasers. At home ... Read more about the Singapura cat breed. Snowshoe Breeders brave enough to take on the Snowshoe challenge find that the cat pays back the effort in love and affection. Anyone ... Read more about the Snowshoe cat breed. Somali With all the virtues of the Abyssinian and adorned by a gorgeous semi-long coat, the Somali is a beautiful and lively addition ... Read more about the Somali cat breed. Sphynx According to the French breed standard, the Sphynx is part monkey, part dog, part child, and part cat. The breed does seem to ... Read more about the Sphynx cat breed. Tonkinese The Tonkinese has a winsome personality, not surprising since the Burmese and Siamese are prized for their temperaments. ... Read more about the Tonkinese cat breed. Turkish Angora Turkish Angora fanciers are as attached to their cats as their cats are to them. Angoras seem to invoke strong responses in ... Read more about the Turkish Angora cat breed. Turkish Van While you might be drawn to the Van for his fascination with water, you'll fall in love with the breed for his other qualities. '... Read more about the Turkish Van cat breed. December 24, 2010: LANshack.com was the very first ecommerce website to offer free online tutorials for cable connections. To say that our articles have been popular over the span of many years would be an understatement. But time marches on and we now have three major updates. For one, we have updated this very popular tutorial, and two, we now have a video tutorial to go with it. But most importantly, we have now developed a totally new system for termination cables called the QuickTreX™ PRO System™. Wow! After over 10 Years of working with cables, tools and connectors, and after keeping on top of our tool, cable, and connector suppliers, we have put it all together to formulate this system for the present a future of cabling components. What does all this mean to the consumer? Compatibility, Reliability, Dependability, ease of use and virtually fool-proof and repeatable results. Due to an overwhelming response to our category 5 & 6 tutorial, and many requests for information and wiring diagrams of "straight through" and "crossover" (cross-pinned) patch cords, I have made this informational page and technical video. On this page, we will cover making patch cords, and other technical and non-technical issues relating to category 5 and 6 patching and connectivity from device to device. Below, you will find the diagrams for 568A, 568B, and crossover patch cables. I suggest that you read on, past the diagrams for some very useful and important information. As always, there continues to be Controversies over standards and practices regarding the use and making of patch cords, and UTP cable in general. Please see our section below titled: "Controversies and Caveats : Category 5, 5E, and Cat 6 Patch Cables". I hope that you will find it interesting and informative. Notes for wiring diagrams above: 1. For patch cables, 568-B wiring is by far, the most common method. 2. There is no difference in connectivity between 568B and 568A cables. Either wiring should work fine on any system*. (*see notes below) 3. For a straight through cable, wire both ends identical. 4. For a crossover cable, wire one end 568A and the other end 568B. 5. Do not confuse pair numbers with pin numbers. A pair number is used for reference only (eg: 10BaseT Ethernet uses pairs 2 & 3). The pin numbers indicate actual physical locations on the plug and jack. Notes Regarding Making Category 5 Patch Cable 1) The RJ-45 plugs are normally made for either solid conductors or stranded conductors. It is very important to be sure that the plug that you use matches the conductor type. It is extremely difficult to tell the difference between the two by looking at them. When you buy these plugs, be sure to categorize, and store them carefully. Using the wrong type can cause intermittent problems. The QuickTreX™ Category 5E, 8 Conductor Modular Plugs , OR QuickTreX™ Category 6, 8 Conductor Modular Plugs that we sell are rated for both Solid and Stranded cable. 2) Ordinarily, it would be taboo to untwist the pairs of any category 5 or 6 cable. The one exception to this rule is when crimping on RJ-45 plugs. It would be impossible to insert the wires into the channels without first untwisting and straightening them. Be sure not to extend the un-twisting, past the skin point. If you do it properly, you will wind up with no more than 1/2" of untwisted conductors (up to 1/2" of untwist meets the cat 5 or 6 specification). 3) If the completed assembly does not pass continuity, you may have a problem in one, or both ends. First try giving each end another crimp. If that does not work, then carefully examine each end. Are the wires in the proper order? Do all of the wires fully extend to the end of the connector? Are all of the pins pushed down fully. Cut off the suspected bad connector, and re-terminate it. If you still have a problem, then repeat the process, this time giving more scrutiny to the end that was not replaced. Controversies and Caveats: Category 5, 5E, and Cat 6 Patch Cables 568B vs. 568A For patch cables, 568-B wiring is by far, the most common wiring method. Virtually all pre-assembled patch cables are wired to the B standard. There is no difference in connectivity between 568B and 568A cables. Therefore, a 568B patch cable should work fine on a 568A cabling system, and visa-versa. Re-use of old cables We have seen this happen time and time again. Perfectly good patch cables that have been working fine for years, get removed from their installation, and re-installed on the same, or different network. The result can be a nightmare. What happens is that the cable, over time, adapts to the way that it is bent in it's original installation. When these cables are removed and re-installed, they can either completely lose their connection, or develop intermittent problems. This is due to stresses that may be opposite to what they were originally subject to. If the integrity of your network is more valuable than the price of new patch cables, then we strongly suggest that you use brand new cables for all closet cleanups, network moves, etc.   Stranded vs. Solid wire Almost all patch cables that are made have stranded wire. Stranded wire is normally specified for use in patch cables due to its superior flexibility. There has been some talk recently, in the technical sector of the structured wiring community, regarding the possible use of solid conductors for patch cables. The reason for the spotlight on solid wire is that it is supposedly more stable, under a variety of conditions. Please note that we now offer custom Solid copper category 5E patch cables in Plenum insulation in lengths of up to 295 feet. These cables are suitable for use in air handling (Plenum) ceilings and environments.